Addison:
Welcome to the Wiggin Sessions. I'm your host Addison Wiggin, and right now we're still
covering surviving
and thriving through the post pandemic economy. Today we have Alec Ross who will be able to
explain himself in a
moment. But I want to show his book, The Raging 2020s. And to me, it was a provocative title
because it brings
to mind the raging 1920s, which were more like economic progress and like a free spirited kind
of approach to
the economy. But that's not what you mean.
Alec:
Well, no, it does evoke the 1920s in a sense.
Addison:
But let me just do a little introduction for you, if you don't mind.
Alec:
Please.
Addison:
Alec, I want to call you Alex.
Alec:
There's a writer for The New Yorker who's a really good writer named Alex Ross, but he writes about
music. And I
don't write about music. So Alec with a C.
Addison:
Alec, you're one of the leading writers about innovation, and we just have something in
common. We both live
in Baltimore.
Alec:
That's right. I think we're probably about two miles from each other.
Addison:
That's right. And you have kids?
Alec:
I have three. Three teenagers, 19, 16 and 14.
Addison:
Yeah. So your kids are right behind mine. Where do they go to school? I'm really curious
about that.
Alec:
Yeah, now the oldest goes to Harvard, and the 16-year-old goes to one public school in Baltimore City
High School and
the other goes to another public high school in Baltimore Poly. So one is more humanities oriented,
one is more math
and science oriented, and the oldest one is studying economics at Harvard.
Addison:
All right. So the oldest is 19?
Alec:
Yes.
Addison:
And at Harvard?
Alec:
Yes.
Addison:
That's pretty quick.
Alec:
Right. He's actually a sophomore there. He's got a pretty impressive math brain. Yeah, he's got a
little bit of a
beautiful mind thing going on.
Addison:
That's kind of cool. Poly is right down the road from me. It's like three quarters of a
mile.
Alec:
Yes, yeah. My son will be playing soccer there in an hour.
Addison:
Oh, really? That's awesome. Okay, all right so let's get started. So I want to read this
sentence, because I
think it kicks us off. "If nothing changes, rage will be the defining quality of the 2020s."
What do you mean by
that?
Alec:
What I mean is that I think we are... we've already seen at the beginning of, a level of anger, a
level of rage, that
is fairly unprecedented in the history of the United States. You actually have to go back to the
1860s. You have to
go back to a time when we were at war. When our country was so divided, when people were so angry.
When levels of
distress are measured across, in a couple of different ways, we're so high. And so what I genuinely
believe is that
every so often, we have to come together and rewrite our social contract. We have to reorient the
relationship
between the state, between government, capital, business, and labor, workers. And we're at another
one of those
moments where the economy is changing pretty significantly, and we need to reorient the relationship
between state
capital and labor.
Addison:
So the way I understand the social contract is, it goes back to Rousseau, right? That was the
original idea,
that there's some kind of agreement between the people who live in a society, and the government
under which
they live.
Alec:
Yeah. So he was the first to write about it, in truth the first social contract, was the first time
humans banded
together and were on two feet. When humans figured out that they were less likely to be eaten by
saber-toothed
tigers, if they banded together. And in so doing, gave up a little bit of their freedom, like the
freedom to Rob or
to kill each other. The freedom to do whatever you want at any given time, but live in a little bit
more of a
collective existence against the harsh outside world. So social contract is central to humanity.
Addison:
But yeah, I never even figured that out in philosophy when I was studying it. We don't
actually... Nobody
signs a contract.
Alec:
No, the social contract is unwritten, and it's evolving. It's sort of a living document. It's sort of
the implicit
and occasionally explicit agreements that exist between the governing, the governed, and businesses.
Like the one
that's actually been dominant through... if you're just thinking of most of humanity, is actually
during the
agricultural age. Where the crown, the monarch, would give rights to the land, to the nobility, in
exchange for
military service and taxes. And the peasants were then obliged to live on the land of their lord in
exchange for a
percentage of the crops. So it's interesting... but there was never a piece of paper that set that
out, "This is the
relationship between the monarch, this is the relationship between the nobility, and this is the
relationship with
the serfs." But it was held for eight, nine hundred years. But it constantly changes in little
different ways.
Addison:
Well, how would you describe that today? There's a lot of people, especially after we pass
through the
pandemic, right? There's a lot of people that are dependent on the government, but there is no
monarch, and
we're not serfs. So how does that philosophy change through time?
Alec:
Yeah, so I don't think it's a philosophy. I think it's a state of being. So for example, let's
back up a little bit
and talk about industrialization. So what I described earlier was the agricultural age. But then
at the beginning of
the 19th century, industrialization took place. Labor went from farm, to factory, from
countryside to city. But as
technology drove enormous wealth creation and change, it was the industrialization of the
Charles Dickens novels.
Eleven years old losing their hands in the factory. And the social contract was rewritten. There
was the
introduction of things like child labor laws. They said, "Yeah, you can work in a factory, but
not until you're 16."
The introduction of a minimum wage. The introduction of the concept of a weekend, a pension.
Yeah, work in the
factory for 30 years, and at the end of it, there'll be something on the other side.
So that social contract was actually the successor to the agricultural age social contract. And
the problem we're
having right now, in the context of today's America, in today's world, is our social contract,
which is largely a
byproduct of things that were true a hundred years ago. Think about a pension for example, my
kids, your kids, are
not likely to have one employer for 30 years, and at the end of those 30 years, they're going to
get a pension.
Think about education. The concept that existed a hundred years ago, that free up public
education could take you to
age 18, and then you would have all the knowledge you needed to go work in a port, factory,
miner, mill. Or if you
were an elite, to a university. Now we all have to be lifelong learners. So what my point in
part, in writing this
book, The Raging 2020s-
Addison:
I got it too.
Alec:
There you go. Will be commercial. Is it actually time to rewrite it? That we're actually stuck in an
industrial age
social contract, and in a post-industrial world.
Addison:
Yeah, it needs to be updated for an era of social media.
Alec:
Well not just social media, but also if you just look at our economics. Like again, going back to
pensions. So if my
14, 16-year-old and 19-year-old are not going to have pensions, right? Like when they graduate from
college? How do
we ensure... well they'll be fine, but they'll be fine because there is spawn of the 1%, that's part
of my point.
But what about everyday workers? What is pension in the 2020s? So yes, in the age of social media,
but I'm much more
concerned about what's at the core of the economy, than the social media theatrics around it.
Addison:
Yeah, so in your view then what would be the... I know this is really not something that you
could probably
answer, but like this social contract of the future. How would you define that?
Alec:
Right. So I'm not pretending to be a guru. Right? This is not a book, this is not 250 pages
telling
people, "This is
what we should do. We should be Denmark. We should be Singapore." Or anything like that. Rather,
what the book tries
to do is tell stories, and give a view into how other states and societies are addressing these
challenges. So for
example, let's talk about things like benefits. Whether it's healthcare, whether it's
unemployment
or whatever it
is. We have a model in the United States right now that's employer based. I think that that
model is
largely failing
at this point. That in fact, our employers shouldn't necessarily be responsible for providing a
series of benefits
that in most other places are byproducts of the state. So I think we need to begin to think
about
how we can evolve
past that. Thinking for example about... I'll go back to pensions, just as a very concrete
example.
In a world where
there aren't pensions, but where we are all going to grow much older... just in my lifetime, the
average life
expectancy has gone from 58 to 71.
It's a big jump in 49 years. We're going to go from 71 to 80, I would argue, over the next seven
to
10 years, as an
average global life expectancy. What are those things that we can do to ensure that as we grow
older, we don't grow
poor. So these are a lot of the kinds of dynamics that we need to sort through, if as we produce
wealth, as we
increase well-being, that wealth and wellbeing is more broadly distributed, and therefore we
don't
have rage, from
all ends of the political spectrum.
Addison:
Yeah, like your own experience, where does that come from? How do you feel about the way that
things are
being managed?
Alec:
Sure. So I see this through two eyes. I come from the world of labor, and now I live in the world of
capital.
Addison:
Yeah, maybe a good thing to do, and this is something that we talked about before, but maybe
a good thing to
do is just talk about a little bit of your life's story. Because it's interesting, the way that
you've derived
your view on the world, has come from an interesting perspective. And I'm just going to preface
that by saying I
come from New England, and you came from West Virginia, right?
Alec:
Yep.
Addison:
Now, I think there's like a parallel universe. It's evolving from an agrarian mindset, to
dealing with the
information culture. And you've written extensively, about the policies that should be in place.
So I want to
frame it in that context. And if you could start just by how you got to where you are that would
be
good.
Alec:
Sure, well, thanks. So look, I grew up in the coal filled hills of West Virginia, as you
referenced.
A public school
kid from West Virginia who worked hard, went to a good school. And then, in my twenties, like
the
caricature of it,
started a company. Started a company in a basement that became successful, focused on technology
and
telecommunications. Recognizing... this was in the mid-90s, or around 2000 that the nature of
the
economy was
changing and, with digitization, there were going to be huge opportunities. So, I started a
company
which became
successful and pivoted from that into government. So, I ran technology policy for Barack Obama's
first presidential
campaign. That went well and, from there, I worked at the State Department. So, for four years,
I
ran the innovation
agenda sort of within America's diplomatic arm, within the State Department.
From there, after doing that, I became a venture capitalist. So, I'm a board partner in a venture
capital fund with a
little over a billion dollars of assets under management. I have written a couple books now. The
first, The
Industries of the Future, was a best seller on five continents and translated
into,
I think, 24
languages. So, really living and working at the intersection of government entrepreneurship and
ideas where those
three things come together.
So, I've been an entrepreneur. I'm now an investor, deploying my LPs capital. Going back to
working
on a beer truck
in the coal-filled hills of West Virginia, constantly thinking about the ideas at the base of
our
economy and sort
of seeing these issues with two eyes.
One eye, again, as the public school kid from West Virginia who worked on a beer truck and the
other
who now lives
and works in the world of capital and is in the 1%. So, it's helped me understand these two very
different worlds,
and I try to bring them together a little bit in what I write.
Addison:
I'm curious about what you were thinking when you were working on the beer truck, like
how
you became
interested in innovation because I think that we are in danger. This is my own statement.
So,
I'm not reading
into your work or anything, but I do think that we're in danger of stifling that kind of
can-do
spirit.
So, I'm wondering what you were thinking at the time. I delivered appliances for a living
for
a while, for
over, I think, 13 months is how long I did it. I remember thinking there's got to be more
than
this, but at the
same time, I mean, it's a job and you're working and you can do what you can do. So, what
was
going through your
mind at that time?
Alec:
Well, first of all, I was working my ass off. I mean, look, the door of the beer warehouse would
literally go up at
6:00 AM and, because I was a junior employee, we had to be there at 5:15 to put the beer on the
truck so that the
wheels would be rolling at six and the wheels would roll back in at about 7:30 at night. So, the
first thing, I was
just trying to survive, but what was I thinking?
There wasn't a government policy or a subsidy or a class that I took that made me interested in
innovation and
entrepreneurship. I don't know if it's genetic or what, but it's something that I was born with
and
I guess living
in the United States amidst the conditions that enabled that, I was able to become an
entrepreneur,
What I would
simply say is, I do think there is something within the American character that lends itself to
entrepreneurship.
For those who came to the United States voluntarily, that was an act of entrepreneurship, you
know,
go West, young
man, settling the frontier was an act of entrepreneurship. So, I do think that there's something
hardwired in the
character and culture of America that lends itself. It's this frontier mentality that does seem
to
be baked into our
culture, at least juxtaposed with others.
Addison:
Yeah. Do you feel like, I hate this phrase, but the bipartisanship that's going on right now,
do you think
that that is challenging the innovative character that. I share your vision, so do you think
it's being
challenged because of politics, like the ability to sort of just choose your own
destiny?
Alec:
I don't know. First of all, I wish we had some bipartisanship right now. We don't. Unfortunately,
we
have tribal
politics that are more like the Hutu versus the Tutsi. I think that we are as divided now as
we've
been since the
1860s. Is politics stifling innovation? I think that if you... Look, there are 196 countries on
planet earth. I've
traveled to more than a hundred of them.
The policies of our government are much more favorable to investment in entrepreneurship than
just
about any other
country on planet earth. Few other places make the distinction, for example, between capital
gains
and traditional
income that we do. Few countries in the world create the incentives to help the investor class
as we
do in the
United States. So, I think that there are strong conditions for innovation and entrepreneurship
here.
I mean, look, I'm deploying capital almost every day, and it's never been a better time to be
investing. I mean, the
field of entrepreneurs, the startups that are out there, and not just in tech, but very broadly
are
incredible right
now. I do think that what we need to make sure is that there's more access to innovation and
entrepreneurship. When
I think about immigration, for example, 40% of the Fortune 500 was started by immigrants and the
children of
immigrants.
So, if we don't continue to make the United States attractive to people who want to come and
imagine
and invent the
future, then we'll be stifling innovation and entrepreneurship. So, there are things that we can
do
to get in our
own way, and I think that we have, but there's still, I would argue, no better country in the
world
to start a
company than the United States.
Addison:
Even with the current spending policies that are in place, do you concern yourself with the
future taxation
that will have to happen with massive spending policies? Do you think about that?
Alec:
Well, I think that we made a pretty significant mistake with some of the tax decreases under the
Trump
administration. I think that what we did with those tax policies is, we actually created
incentives
for companies to
locate more of their activities abroad than in the United States. We intended, I think, to try
to
onshore a lot of
that capital and we did onshore capital but, what we did is, we ended up offshoring a lot of
activity.
In terms of spending, let's think about what got us out of the ditch of the 1920s. What got us
out
was the New Deal.
There is not one example in the past 400 years of history that anyone can point to. I'm happy to
be
educated, but
investing in infrastructure has not been a financial win, whether it's ports, whether it's rail,
whether it's
highways, whether it's broadband networks, investments in infrastructure, or investments in the
future.
So, if we're going to worry about spending, the first place we need to start, I think, is with
our
military spending.
We're spending over $800 billion a year on our military budget right now, and we're not in
Afghanistan. We're not in
Iraq. The slope on the graph in our military spending continues to go up.
So, what I see right now is a lack of discipline, where we can make changes in public policy, for
example, but we
don't then create the corresponding changes in terms of how we actually allocate capital. So, if
we're spending too
much money, there are plenty of places that we can look first, and I would start with our
military
spending.
Addison:
And why is that?
Alec:
Because it's more than $800 billion a year and we aren't at war right now. So, if you go back to
2002, 2003, 2004 as
a percentage of GDP, we are spending as much as a percentage of GDP on our military right now,
as we
were when we
were in kinetic operations with tens and hundreds of thousands of people deployed in Afghanistan
and
Iraq. It just
doesn't make sense economically. This isn't calculus.
This is like middle school math, so I think it's fairly insane that we are spending what we are
right
now without
having the boots on the ground in these countries but, because our Congress is so wedded to
military
spending and
because any attempt to bring any sort financial discipline to that world is viewed as something
less
than patriotic,
we don't do it. Also, let's look at it in juxtaposition to our global competition, China, for
example.
China is investing in next generation technologies. They're investing in artificial intelligence,
machine learning
and robotics. They're investing in 5G broadband networks. They're investing in genomics, And yet
they're investing
about one fifth of what we are in the military. We should be spending less money on the military
and
more in
strategic investments oriented to the future of our economy.
Addison:
So, given what you've been talking about as an investor, what do you think about that? You're
going to put
your own money somewhere?
Alec:
Sure. Well, fortunately, my investments have thrived and continue to thrive in large part because
where I tend to
focus is in that segment of the economy where America is best, and that is early stage companies
that are imagining
and inventing the future, that are rewiring markets, and that are oftentimes entering public
markets. We've gone
from $200 million of assets under management to over a billion in four or five years,
particularly
because times are
so good in that segment.
Frankly, government policies don't really enable or inhibit us too much. If you think about the
creation of a lot of
America's biggest companies, it's not like Jeff Bezos when he started Amazon was enabled or
disabled
by the
government. When Sam Walton started Walmart, he wasn't enabled or disabled by the government.
If you were to go to Google, if anything, they were enabled by the government because of the
Google
search engine.
The first funding for it was a government IMLS grant for a couple of grad students at Stanford.
So, I do you think that when I think about spending in Washington right now as a human being, as
a
citizen, as
somebody who pays taxes, I want us to bring a more logical approach to what we are investing in,
where we are
spending in capital. As an investor, I would say it's not really impacting our behavior. It's
not
something I'm
overly concerned with.
Addison:
That kind of begs the question, what are you investing in? You don't have to give me
companies, but what
areas are you most interested in?
Alec:
So, we invest very, very broadly and, if you go to Amplo.com, you can see a list of those
companies.
Technology is at
the core of most of the companies, but we're also investing in agriculture. We made an
investment in
a company
called Bowery Farming, which is using AI and robotics basically to produce organic crops at
levels
that previously
didn't exist and bring those products in at lower price points into a Whole Foods near you.
We invest in human capital. We invest in education. We've invested in a variety of different
areas.
For us, if I were
to say there's a sort of a common aspect to them, it's digitization linked to artificial
intelligence, machine
learning and robotics.
Addison:
So, what is your method for looking for innovations in those areas?
Alec:
I mean, we've got a pretty talented team that goes deep into certain areas, but God's honest truth is
that the thing
I'm looking at first is the entrepreneur. A great entrepreneur, a great CEO has this sort of almost
beast-like
quality to him or her. You can always diligence a piece of science. You can always diligence a piece
of technology.
That for me is actually the easier part. The more complicated and the more important part is
actually understanding
the human beings, the teams behind the companies. And so the companies that end up producing the
biggest returns for
us are those that have a set of, I wouldn't say common characteristics, but shared characteristics
and attributes in
the founding team and in the executive team.
Addison:
Do you want to talk about what those are?
Alec:
Yeah, so one of them is mania. So a focus on mission. I'll give one example. There was a company
that
I got involved
in called Mark 43, and it was started by a kid from a family of cops. And he, like my son, was a
student at Harvard.
And when he was a junior at Harvard, he started doing ride arounds with the local police
officers
and noticed that
in their cars, the technology they used was like something out of CHiPs. It was like technology
from
the 1980s.
And if you arrest somebody, it's like a six hour process. You're taking a police officer off the
beat
for six hours
to do paperwork, right? So he, being a really smart engineering student, a junior at Harvard,
thought about how to
create technology to make law enforcement more efficient and effective.
Fast forward seven years, it went from an idea of a kid in a police car who's in college
undergraduate to we just
financed it at 1.5 billion pre-money. Suffice to say we got involved a long time ago. And the
slope
on the graph
goes really up. But what the characteristic there was, somebody young and hungry with a very
clear
idea about how to
take the world as it existed previously, like the police car that looks like the police car from
CHIPs, and take it
into the future. That's something that I just got.
I'll give another example. I believe that talent is universally distributed, but opportunity is
not.
So you in New
England and me in West Virginia, I don't know about you, but I think that there are kids who
went to
my high school
in West Virginia who had just as much God given talent as everybody else. They just didn't have
the
opportunity.
So one of the company is we invested in is called Andela, and its thesis was, "Hey, if we go into
Africa, go into a
place like a place like Lagos, Nigeria, where there are 20 million people and we come up with a
methodology to find
people who have the greatest level of sort of natural talent for coding, if we give them sort of
Google class
technology training, we can create great engineers, we can create a marketplace for their
talent.
And in doing so,
we can bring assets to Africa."
Well, that went from sort of a crazy idea to SoftBank just invested, again, 1.5 billion
pre-money.
But the
characteristic of that entrepreneur, clear idea. Talent is universally distributed, opportunity
is
not. We have a
specific way of identifying really highly talented people, developing that talent, and then
commercializing it.
Addison:
So most of the readers that are going to be viewing this conversation, and I'm going to write
about it as
well, most of them are investing their own money. So the best opportunity for them would be
early stage
investments. And for the most part, they can't get into pre-money Like you're talking about, but
what would you
recommend for... That's part of the reason I'm asking about the ideas that you have before you
invest, but what
would you recommend for somebody who just wants to get in on some ground level opportunity if
they recognize a
trend and they want to move forward.
Alec:
The first thing I would say is invest in funds, invest in venture capital funds. An individual
with
some capital is
most likely not going to be able to source the deals the way I in others are. But if you look,
let's
come back to
Harvard. Harvard just threw up some insane numbers. Their endowment, which is huge already,
increased 34% last year.
How did it go up when you strip out that 34%? Outsized returns in private equity and venture
capital.
So what I would say is public markets investing is something entirely different and we can talk
about
that. But for
people who want to be able to invest as effectively as say Harvard, and for whom public markets,
you
might look at
public markets and have some difficulty because sure, there are things that are great, but
there's
more liquidity
than there are great companies with room for growth. I would say invest in good venture capital
funds.
Addison:
Yeah. But that in itself is discouraging for some people.
Alec:
Discouraging because they don't have the capital to invest. How is it discouraging?
Addison:
Well, it's discouraging in a way that they feel like they can't get in. They feel like
they're on the wrong
side of the trade.
Alec:
Okay.
Addison:
So I don't know if that means anything, but I think it's a real sentiment. Like you yourself
were just saying
that you went from West Virginia to part of the 1%, which is a good thing to do, right?
Alec:
Yep.
Addison:
But you must see that there are people who are just trying to manage their own
money.
Alec:
Well, for people who are just trying to manage their own money, if your source of wealth or if your
source of income
is what's getting direct deposited in your checking account every two weeks and you've got a couple
thousand bucks
or tens of thousands of dollars to invest, you shouldn't be investing in venture capital funds. And
in fact, if you
have less $200,000 to invest, you probably shouldn't be investing in private markets to start off
with. You should
probably be investing in entirely liquid, entirely public markets, because the lack of liquidity in
private markets
would create too much exposure for you. You would have a lack of access. You wouldn't be able to hit
the investment
minimums. So if you're only talking about up to a couple hundred thousand dollars, you should
probably be investing
in things that are 100% public, 100% liquid.
Addison:
So when you were in that position, how did you approach it?
Alec:
Well, first I was passive. I mean, I'll be honest, when I was an entrepreneur, I was not looking
over
my shoulder at
my own investments. So I invested, and it was mutual fund guys and that's fine. It's fine. But I
didn't get
surgical. Where I went from passive to active and where I really sort of became the CEO of my
own
personal capital,
investible capital, was actually not that long ago. It was shortly before the pandemic where I
saw
the professional
money managers, with plenty of fees associated with them, underperforming relative to what I
thought
I could do
myself. Then I sort of took control. And if you read my first book, I wrote a book called the
industries of the
future that was referenced earlier. I set out a number of theses about the world related to
digitization, related to
the development of fields like genomics, and related to crypto.
So what I did is I began to allocate capital in line with my thoughts, but then into specific
equities. So I'm like,
"All right, well, if everything's going to be digitized, who is in the best position to sort of
digitize music?
Spotify. Who's in the best position to digitize video? Netflix. Who's in the best position to
digitize consumer
goods?" And I was kind of like, "Well, Amazon, but Amazon's already really expensive." I thought
Amazon was really
expensive. I invested anyway and then it doubled during the pandemic. So what I just said is,
"All
right, if I
believe that there's going to be digitization broadly, what is the sort of best of class in all
of
those?"
Addison:
Yeah. Have you run into Juan Enriques at all?
Alec:
I'm not sure.
Addison:
Juan, he's similar to you actually. He's a financier of projects and he works with Craig
Venter.
Alec:
Okay.
Addison:
They have done a lot of things in genomics, and I only bring that up because you just
mentioned
genomics.
Alec:
Yeah, I write about Craig Venter in my first book, The Industries Of The Future.
He's a fascinating
visionary.
Addison:
Yeah. Yeah. He's interesting. Juan is somebody that I know, has worked with him to do...
They're
doing that one
project with Exxon, where they're trying to harvest natural gas, it's actually methane, from
these
pools of
bacteria. It's out in San Diego. It's kind of an interesting project, but it hasn't come to
fruition
yet. What kind
of investment investments have you made or have you made any investments that are aligned with
genetic engineering?
Alec:
No, because most of the most interesting stuff there tends to be pre-public. There are some
exceptions. If you think
about the mRNA vaccines, so an mRNA vaccine, it's a genetic pharmaceutical. So the interesting
question to me now
is, all right, Moderna had a workable vaccine, 48 hours, 48 hours after the genetic code was emailed
to them. The
genetic code for COVID-19 was actually emailed to them. And they had a workable vaccine within 48
hours. There's
nothing about mRNA that lends itself exclusively to a novel coronavirus. So the interesting question
for me right
now, and I can't give you the name of a stock or anything like that, but the interesting process is
to say, "All
right, well, how does this approach, how can this approach be adopted and adapted?"
Addison:
Exactly. That's what I'm asking.
Alec:
Yeah. Yeah. So I don't have stock names for you, but this is the area to sort of research. If you see
the underlying
technology and the potential of the underlying technology, what are the opportunities with other
maladies?
Addison:
So do you think that there's potential there, just based on the data that we've gathered from
the
pandemic?
Alec:
Yeah. So look, I think the world's last trillion dollar industry was created out of computer code and
the world's
next trillion dollar industry is going to be created out of genetic code. We've seen the beginnings
of it. And what
I hope is that with the pandemic, part of what we've seen is an acceleration of the
commercialization and approval
process. What I hope is that this is the beginning of speeding up things to market. Unfortunately,
there's a big
segment of America that I guess doesn't believe in science and has created a pretty powerful counter
narrative to
things like these mRNA vaccines. But I don't think that will substantially inhibit its
commercialization.
Addison:
How does it move forward from here? So, there's some technology that went into the mRNA
vaccines. What are
you envisioning for how that's going to move forward? Because I happen to agree with you, so
that's helpful. And
so, where does it go from here?
Alec:
I think we're seeing a lot of activity right now inside big pharma, and also at a smaller scale
inside some more
research oriented institutions focused on entirely different maladies. Now, they don't have the
conditions of a
pandemic where billions of dollars are suddenly going to flow into their institution. And a
commercialization
opportunity is available to them in six months. So there isn't that sort of perfect storm, but what
there is, is an
opportunity recognizing where pharma is going and the multi billion dollar R and D companies that
exist inside a lot
of these companies, to figure out how the technology can be adapted for other maladies.
Addison:
Are you at all skeptical of that perfect storm? It sounds like you don't even worry about the
politics behind
it.
Alec:
When you... I don't understand the question. The perfect storm was, we had a global pandemic, which
meant that we had
to send billions of dollars to pharmaceutical companies who represented that they had the underlying
capabilities to
develop vaccines. They proved mostly right. I mean, I think AstraZeneca underperformed, but even
AstraZeneca did
produce something that created some efficacy. So, no, I actually think it's pretty validating. I
think the fact that
vaccines are not miracles of science. I think they are validations of science. And I think the
companies who develop
them deserve enormous credit.
Addison:
Are you ever suspicious of that?
Alec:
Not at all.
Addison:
Yeah.
Alec:
Not even a little. No. I mean, look, there's a lot... Nothing has been more studied, more
intensively, scientifically
over a shorter period of time than these mRNA vaccines. So no, I have no level of skepticism at all.
And in fact, if
you look at vaccines broadly, outside of the mythology, in terms of actual evidence of vaccines
doing harm, there's
little to no evidence of any vaccine anywhere actually doing harm. So no, I'm not skeptical.
Addison:
How about just the process of getting through the FDA and all that, the stuff that we hear
about on the
regular media on a regular basis?
Alec:
Well, I would've liked for the FDA to move faster, if anything. But I think that it appears that the
system worked.
The FDA, which normally would've taken a couple years, recognizing that hundreds of thousands of
people were dying,
worked on in an expedited fashion. If you look, for example, at the Pfizer clinical trial, they had
over 30,000
people in their clinical trials. I think it was... the system worked. We can sort of declare
victory, in a manner of
speaking, in terms of how government and business could work together in this respect.
Addison:
Yeah. All right. So, I want to go back to the original question. So, here's your
book.
Alec:
Mm-hmm (affirmative).
Addison:
And I want to read the sentence again, because it struck me as important. You... Have to flip
through to get
to it. But you basically said that you're... Well, I'm just going to paraphrase. You are keying
off the raging
20s of the 1920s, because that was a period of enormous prosperity. But you're using the phrase,
raging, because
of the political divide. That's what I took away from it.
Alec:
So the roaring 20s of the 1920s were prosperous until the end. And let's remember how the roaring 20s
ended.
Addison:
Exactly.
Alec:
It ended with financial collapse and with Germany tilting toward Nazis, Italy tilting towards
fascism, and the United
States tilting in a different direction toward the New Deal to restore the health of the
economy.
So, that was the
roaring 20s, and it was a period of remarkable artistic and cultural production. The raging 20s,
I
would argue, has
started very badly, in much the way that the roaring 20s began after World War I, after the
Spanish
Flu. This decade
is beginning through the destruction of the pandemic. And as Picasso said, "Every act of
creation
began ends with an
act of destruction."
But we're in a position right now, where I think that we are going to make decisions, whether
this
decade concludes
with us tilting more with the world looking either more like Star Trek or more like Mad Max. And
whether the future
looks more like Star Trek or more like Mad Max at the end of this decade, comes down to the
question
of, will we
rewrite our social contract?
I mean, just a little math for you. I think I'm young. I'm only 49 years old. But if you go back
to
when I was three
years old and nine years old, rather, third grade... If the level of inequality had stayed
constant
over 40 years,
over 40 years from when I was in third grade to today, it would mean that 50 trillion dollar, 50
with a T, would
have gone to workers earning below 90%. That's $1,100 per worker, per month.
So why are people in West Virginia raging? Well, they're raging in part because they've become
completely emasculated
and they've suffered for decades, economically. And that $1,000... And if it were 40 years ago,
they
would be
earning, on average, $1,100 per worker, per month more. That's remarkable. Thinking about the
1%,
over the last 30
years. And again, I'm part of the 1%. But over the last 30 years, here's the math. This is just
data. In the last 30
years, the top 1% has grown $21 trillion wealthier while the lower 50 half has grown $900
billion
dollars poorer.
And the middle class, 50 to 90%, has stagnated. That's fairly remarkable math. And if that
trajectory continues,
then what I think we're going to see is, we're going to see more radicalization, we're going to
see
more and more
rage, and we're going to see the social contract tear.
Addison:
But how do you write a social contract?
Alec:
In part, with things like tax legislation. They're very... That sounds really... This stuff
sounds
high minded, but
it then becomes very practical. I mean, the fact that we have a tax system where, about every
other
year, a single
FedEx driver, like one FedEx driver pays more in federal taxes than Federal Express Corporation,
that's pretty
screwed up. Where the 17 year old barista who makes your cappuccino for you at Starbucks, pays
more
in federal taxes
than Starbucks. That's pretty screwed up. And it's because as capital has globalized, we've
created
a global capital
system where you might think you're at a Starbucks, but you're really in the Grand Caymans from
a
tax perspective.
I write about this a fair bit in the Raging 2020s. Paying taxes is not something that the world's
richest
corporations and individuals do. So if you want to talk about how we can rewrite our social
contract, I think that
billionaires, and I think that the world's wealthiest corporations should pay taxes. I think
FedEx
should pay more
in federal taxes than the FedEx driver. I think Starbucks should pay more in taxes than the 17
year
old barista. So,
here is a very practical example.
Addison:
But, how does that happen?
Alec:
Through things like, for example, give the Biden administration credit. If you were to say, "What is
the number one
thing that the Biden administration has done well?" I'd say, "It's the introduction of a global
minimum tax.", which
now has 136 countries behind it. A global minimum tax will be able to, I believe, reduce the taxes
of 90% of
Americans. Because what we will have done is we will have closed the tax games that allow the
world's richest people
and corporations to not pay taxes.
Addison:
But isn't there an argument that, if they don't have to pay taxes, for example... I know what
you're arguing
for. What do you say when they say, "Hey, if we can keep our money, we can invest in new
industries. We can
create new things." And don't Google, Facebook, Amazon, don't they play Apple? I know that's an
actual fact that
I know, that they move all their operations to Ireland during the tax holiday over there.
Doesn't that create
new jobs?
Alec:
No. I mean, look, I think that the idea that we should say, "Our richest people in our richest
companies shouldn't
pay taxes because it creates jobs.", if I could... I think it's a pretty dangerous idea. And
also,
if you actually
look at... Let's look at the math. I'm a big believer in math. Let's talk about the airlines,
for
example. Okay?
America's five biggest airlines produced 49 billion dollars in free cash flow in the decade
preceding the pandemic,
49 billion dollars. Did they invest in new planes? Did they invest in higher wages for their
employers? Did they
invest in new roots?
No. 47 billion of that 49 billion dollars went to stock buybacks. And so what... So 47 billion
dollars disappears
into stock buybacks. So what then happens when the pandemic hits? What happens when the pandemic
hits and they need
cash, guess who comes to save them? The government. This isn't capitalism, it's corporate
socialism,
where you
privatize the gains to shareholders and you socialize the gains to taxpayers.
Think about Boeing. Boeing, over that same 10 year period, had 58 billion dollars in free cash
flow.
It spent 43
billion of that 58 billion on share buybacks. This, despite the fact that so many of its planes
were
crashing. So it
didn't put that 43 billion dollars into building safer planes, to doing research and development
so
that maybe they
wouldn't crash. No, they fluffed up the stock price. And so, these things, no, I think it
doesn't
work in reality.
And I also don't believe that companies like Google and others that incorporate in Ireland
during
tax holidays and
others, should get benefits that most of us, who live and work in the United States and work and
play by the rules
here, don't.
Addison:
All right. Sounds good.
Alec:
All right.
Addison:
Hopefully we'll talk to you soon. I mean, you're down the street.
Alec:
Likewise. Likewise. Well, look, I appreciate the time. Thank you for drawing some attention to this
book, The Raging
2020s. And I'll be closer to you in a short while, when I'm at Poly High School for my son's soccer
game.
Addison:
All right.
Alec:
Take care.
Addison:
See you.