Wiggin Sessions

Surviving and Thriving The Post-Pandemic Economy 2021, Episode 63

Featuring Alec Ross

Addison Wiggin

Hosted By:

Addison Wiggin

The Wiggin Sessions, conceived during the COVID-19 pandemic and tornado warning in Baltimore, Maryland. Addison started interviewing key thinkers on Politics, Science, Economics, Philosophy and History to find out how their ideas impact financial markets and our financial lives. Key thinkers include Jim Rickards, Bill Bonner, George Gilder, James Altucher and over 50 others.

In 2020, he launched a new project called Consilience, which is an enlightenment era term that means “the unity of knowledge”. He is the co-author of the New York Times best-selling books Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt, as well as The Demise of the Dollar and The Little Book of the Shrinking Dollar. Addison is the writer and executive producer of the documentary I.O.U.S.A., an expose of the national debt, shortlisted for an Academy Award in 2008.

Alec Ross

Featuring:

Alec Ross

Alec Ross is a Distinguished Professor at l’Universitá di Bologna, an author, entrepreneur and investor. His book The Raging 2020s is about the collision that has taken place at the intersection of government, business and citizens. His prior book The Industries of the Future has been translated into 24 languages and been a best-seller on 5 continents. He is a Board Partner at Amplo, a global venture capital firm and sits on the board of directors for companies in the fields of technology, finance, education, human capital and cybersecurity.Alec served as the convenor for technology and media policy on Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign and served as Senior Advisor for Innovation to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

He began his career with Teach for America and co-founded and helped lead a technology-focused social enterprise.

Addison:

Welcome to the Wiggin Sessions. I'm your host Addison Wiggin, and right now we're still covering surviving and thriving through the post pandemic economy. Today we have Alec Ross who will be able to explain himself in a moment. But I want to show his book, The Raging 2020s. And to me, it was a provocative title because it brings to mind the raging 1920s, which were more like economic progress and like a free spirited kind of approach to the economy. But that's not what you mean.

Alec:

Well, no, it does evoke the 1920s in a sense.

Addison:

But let me just do a little introduction for you, if you don't mind.

Alec:

Please.

Addison:

Alec, I want to call you Alex.

Alec:

There's a writer for The New Yorker who's a really good writer named Alex Ross, but he writes about music. And I don't write about music. So Alec with a C.

Addison:

Alec, you're one of the leading writers about innovation, and we just have something in common. We both live in Baltimore.

Alec:

That's right. I think we're probably about two miles from each other.

Addison:

That's right. And you have kids?

Alec:

I have three. Three teenagers, 19, 16 and 14.

Addison:

Yeah. So your kids are right behind mine. Where do they go to school? I'm really curious about that.

Alec:

Yeah, now the oldest goes to Harvard, and the 16-year-old goes to one public school in Baltimore City High School and the other goes to another public high school in Baltimore Poly. So one is more humanities oriented, one is more math and science oriented, and the oldest one is studying economics at Harvard.

Addison:

All right. So the oldest is 19?

Alec:

Yes.

Addison:

And at Harvard?

Alec:

Yes.

Addison:

That's pretty quick.

Alec:

Right. He's actually a sophomore there. He's got a pretty impressive math brain. Yeah, he's got a little bit of a beautiful mind thing going on.

Addison:

That's kind of cool. Poly is right down the road from me. It's like three quarters of a mile.

Alec:

Yes, yeah. My son will be playing soccer there in an hour.

Addison:

Oh, really? That's awesome. Okay, all right so let's get started. So I want to read this sentence, because I think it kicks us off. "If nothing changes, rage will be the defining quality of the 2020s." What do you mean by that?

Alec:

What I mean is that I think we are... we've already seen at the beginning of, a level of anger, a level of rage, that is fairly unprecedented in the history of the United States. You actually have to go back to the 1860s. You have to go back to a time when we were at war. When our country was so divided, when people were so angry. When levels of distress are measured across, in a couple of different ways, we're so high. And so what I genuinely believe is that every so often, we have to come together and rewrite our social contract. We have to reorient the relationship between the state, between government, capital, business, and labor, workers. And we're at another one of those moments where the economy is changing pretty significantly, and we need to reorient the relationship between state capital and labor.

Addison:

So the way I understand the social contract is, it goes back to Rousseau, right? That was the original idea, that there's some kind of agreement between the people who live in a society, and the government under which they live.

Alec:

Yeah. So he was the first to write about it, in truth the first social contract, was the first time humans banded together and were on two feet. When humans figured out that they were less likely to be eaten by saber-toothed tigers, if they banded together. And in so doing, gave up a little bit of their freedom, like the freedom to Rob or to kill each other. The freedom to do whatever you want at any given time, but live in a little bit more of a collective existence against the harsh outside world. So social contract is central to humanity.

Addison:

But yeah, I never even figured that out in philosophy when I was studying it. We don't actually... Nobody signs a contract.

Alec:

No, the social contract is unwritten, and it's evolving. It's sort of a living document. It's sort of the implicit and occasionally explicit agreements that exist between the governing, the governed, and businesses. Like the one that's actually been dominant through... if you're just thinking of most of humanity, is actually during the agricultural age. Where the crown, the monarch, would give rights to the land, to the nobility, in exchange for military service and taxes. And the peasants were then obliged to live on the land of their lord in exchange for a percentage of the crops. So it's interesting... but there was never a piece of paper that set that out, "This is the relationship between the monarch, this is the relationship between the nobility, and this is the relationship with the serfs." But it was held for eight, nine hundred years. But it constantly changes in little different ways.

Addison:

Well, how would you describe that today? There's a lot of people, especially after we pass through the pandemic, right? There's a lot of people that are dependent on the government, but there is no monarch, and we're not serfs. So how does that philosophy change through time?

Alec:

Yeah, so I don't think it's a philosophy. I think it's a state of being. So for example, let's back up a little bit and talk about industrialization. So what I described earlier was the agricultural age. But then at the beginning of the 19th century, industrialization took place. Labor went from farm, to factory, from countryside to city. But as technology drove enormous wealth creation and change, it was the industrialization of the Charles Dickens novels. Eleven years old losing their hands in the factory. And the social contract was rewritten. There was the introduction of things like child labor laws. They said, "Yeah, you can work in a factory, but not until you're 16." The introduction of a minimum wage. The introduction of the concept of a weekend, a pension. Yeah, work in the factory for 30 years, and at the end of it, there'll be something on the other side.

So that social contract was actually the successor to the agricultural age social contract. And the problem we're having right now, in the context of today's America, in today's world, is our social contract, which is largely a byproduct of things that were true a hundred years ago. Think about a pension for example, my kids, your kids, are not likely to have one employer for 30 years, and at the end of those 30 years, they're going to get a pension. Think about education. The concept that existed a hundred years ago, that free up public education could take you to age 18, and then you would have all the knowledge you needed to go work in a port, factory, miner, mill. Or if you were an elite, to a university. Now we all have to be lifelong learners. So what my point in part, in writing this book, The Raging 2020s-

Addison:

I got it too.

Alec:

There you go. Will be commercial. Is it actually time to rewrite it? That we're actually stuck in an industrial age social contract, and in a post-industrial world.

Addison:

Yeah, it needs to be updated for an era of social media.

Alec:

Well not just social media, but also if you just look at our economics. Like again, going back to pensions. So if my 14, 16-year-old and 19-year-old are not going to have pensions, right? Like when they graduate from college? How do we ensure... well they'll be fine, but they'll be fine because there is spawn of the 1%, that's part of my point. But what about everyday workers? What is pension in the 2020s? So yes, in the age of social media, but I'm much more concerned about what's at the core of the economy, than the social media theatrics around it.

Addison:

Yeah, so in your view then what would be the... I know this is really not something that you could probably answer, but like this social contract of the future. How would you define that?

Alec:

Right. So I'm not pretending to be a guru. Right? This is not a book, this is not 250 pages telling people, "This is what we should do. We should be Denmark. We should be Singapore." Or anything like that. Rather, what the book tries to do is tell stories, and give a view into how other states and societies are addressing these challenges. So for example, let's talk about things like benefits. Whether it's healthcare, whether it's unemployment or whatever it is. We have a model in the United States right now that's employer based. I think that that model is largely failing at this point. That in fact, our employers shouldn't necessarily be responsible for providing a series of benefits that in most other places are byproducts of the state. So I think we need to begin to think about how we can evolve past that. Thinking for example about... I'll go back to pensions, just as a very concrete example. In a world where there aren't pensions, but where we are all going to grow much older... just in my lifetime, the average life expectancy has gone from 58 to 71.

It's a big jump in 49 years. We're going to go from 71 to 80, I would argue, over the next seven to 10 years, as an average global life expectancy. What are those things that we can do to ensure that as we grow older, we don't grow poor. So these are a lot of the kinds of dynamics that we need to sort through, if as we produce wealth, as we increase well-being, that wealth and wellbeing is more broadly distributed, and therefore we don't have rage, from all ends of the political spectrum.

Addison:

Yeah, like your own experience, where does that come from? How do you feel about the way that things are being managed?

Alec:

Sure. So I see this through two eyes. I come from the world of labor, and now I live in the world of capital.

Addison:

Yeah, maybe a good thing to do, and this is something that we talked about before, but maybe a good thing to do is just talk about a little bit of your life's story. Because it's interesting, the way that you've derived your view on the world, has come from an interesting perspective. And I'm just going to preface that by saying I come from New England, and you came from West Virginia, right?

Alec:

Yep.

Addison:

Now, I think there's like a parallel universe. It's evolving from an agrarian mindset, to dealing with the information culture. And you've written extensively, about the policies that should be in place. So I want to frame it in that context. And if you could start just by how you got to where you are that would be good.

Alec:

Sure, well, thanks. So look, I grew up in the coal filled hills of West Virginia, as you referenced. A public school kid from West Virginia who worked hard, went to a good school. And then, in my twenties, like the caricature of it, started a company. Started a company in a basement that became successful, focused on technology and telecommunications. Recognizing... this was in the mid-90s, or around 2000 that the nature of the economy was changing and, with digitization, there were going to be huge opportunities. So, I started a company which became successful and pivoted from that into government. So, I ran technology policy for Barack Obama's first presidential campaign. That went well and, from there, I worked at the State Department. So, for four years, I ran the innovation agenda sort of within America's diplomatic arm, within the State Department.

From there, after doing that, I became a venture capitalist. So, I'm a board partner in a venture capital fund with a little over a billion dollars of assets under management. I have written a couple books now. The first, The Industries of the Future, was a best seller on five continents and translated into, I think, 24 languages. So, really living and working at the intersection of government entrepreneurship and ideas where those three things come together.

So, I've been an entrepreneur. I'm now an investor, deploying my LPs capital. Going back to working on a beer truck in the coal-filled hills of West Virginia, constantly thinking about the ideas at the base of our economy and sort of seeing these issues with two eyes.

One eye, again, as the public school kid from West Virginia who worked on a beer truck and the other who now lives and works in the world of capital and is in the 1%. So, it's helped me understand these two very different worlds, and I try to bring them together a little bit in what I write.

Addison:

I'm curious about what you were thinking when you were working on the beer truck, like how you became interested in innovation because I think that we are in danger. This is my own statement. So, I'm not reading into your work or anything, but I do think that we're in danger of stifling that kind of can-do spirit.

So, I'm wondering what you were thinking at the time. I delivered appliances for a living for a while, for over, I think, 13 months is how long I did it. I remember thinking there's got to be more than this, but at the same time, I mean, it's a job and you're working and you can do what you can do. So, what was going through your mind at that time?

Alec:

Well, first of all, I was working my ass off. I mean, look, the door of the beer warehouse would literally go up at 6:00 AM and, because I was a junior employee, we had to be there at 5:15 to put the beer on the truck so that the wheels would be rolling at six and the wheels would roll back in at about 7:30 at night. So, the first thing, I was just trying to survive, but what was I thinking?

There wasn't a government policy or a subsidy or a class that I took that made me interested in innovation and entrepreneurship. I don't know if it's genetic or what, but it's something that I was born with and I guess living in the United States amidst the conditions that enabled that, I was able to become an entrepreneur, What I would simply say is, I do think there is something within the American character that lends itself to entrepreneurship.

For those who came to the United States voluntarily, that was an act of entrepreneurship, you know, go West, young man, settling the frontier was an act of entrepreneurship. So, I do think that there's something hardwired in the character and culture of America that lends itself. It's this frontier mentality that does seem to be baked into our culture, at least juxtaposed with others.

Addison:

Yeah. Do you feel like, I hate this phrase, but the bipartisanship that's going on right now, do you think that that is challenging the innovative character that. I share your vision, so do you think it's being challenged because of politics, like the ability to sort of just choose your own destiny?

Alec:

I don't know. First of all, I wish we had some bipartisanship right now. We don't. Unfortunately, we have tribal politics that are more like the Hutu versus the Tutsi. I think that we are as divided now as we've been since the 1860s. Is politics stifling innovation? I think that if you... Look, there are 196 countries on planet earth. I've traveled to more than a hundred of them.

The policies of our government are much more favorable to investment in entrepreneurship than just about any other country on planet earth. Few other places make the distinction, for example, between capital gains and traditional income that we do. Few countries in the world create the incentives to help the investor class as we do in the United States. So, I think that there are strong conditions for innovation and entrepreneurship here.

I mean, look, I'm deploying capital almost every day, and it's never been a better time to be investing. I mean, the field of entrepreneurs, the startups that are out there, and not just in tech, but very broadly are incredible right now. I do think that what we need to make sure is that there's more access to innovation and entrepreneurship. When I think about immigration, for example, 40% of the Fortune 500 was started by immigrants and the children of immigrants.

So, if we don't continue to make the United States attractive to people who want to come and imagine and invent the future, then we'll be stifling innovation and entrepreneurship. So, there are things that we can do to get in our own way, and I think that we have, but there's still, I would argue, no better country in the world to start a company than the United States.

Addison:

Even with the current spending policies that are in place, do you concern yourself with the future taxation that will have to happen with massive spending policies? Do you think about that?

Alec:

Well, I think that we made a pretty significant mistake with some of the tax decreases under the Trump administration. I think that what we did with those tax policies is, we actually created incentives for companies to locate more of their activities abroad than in the United States. We intended, I think, to try to onshore a lot of that capital and we did onshore capital but, what we did is, we ended up offshoring a lot of activity.

In terms of spending, let's think about what got us out of the ditch of the 1920s. What got us out was the New Deal. There is not one example in the past 400 years of history that anyone can point to. I'm happy to be educated, but investing in infrastructure has not been a financial win, whether it's ports, whether it's rail, whether it's highways, whether it's broadband networks, investments in infrastructure, or investments in the future.

So, if we're going to worry about spending, the first place we need to start, I think, is with our military spending. We're spending over $800 billion a year on our military budget right now, and we're not in Afghanistan. We're not in Iraq. The slope on the graph in our military spending continues to go up.

So, what I see right now is a lack of discipline, where we can make changes in public policy, for example, but we don't then create the corresponding changes in terms of how we actually allocate capital. So, if we're spending too much money, there are plenty of places that we can look first, and I would start with our military spending.

Addison:

And why is that?

Alec:

Because it's more than $800 billion a year and we aren't at war right now. So, if you go back to 2002, 2003, 2004 as a percentage of GDP, we are spending as much as a percentage of GDP on our military right now, as we were when we were in kinetic operations with tens and hundreds of thousands of people deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq. It just doesn't make sense economically. This isn't calculus.

This is like middle school math, so I think it's fairly insane that we are spending what we are right now without having the boots on the ground in these countries but, because our Congress is so wedded to military spending and because any attempt to bring any sort financial discipline to that world is viewed as something less than patriotic, we don't do it. Also, let's look at it in juxtaposition to our global competition, China, for example.

China is investing in next generation technologies. They're investing in artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics. They're investing in 5G broadband networks. They're investing in genomics, And yet they're investing about one fifth of what we are in the military. We should be spending less money on the military and more in strategic investments oriented to the future of our economy.

Addison:

So, given what you've been talking about as an investor, what do you think about that? You're going to put your own money somewhere?

Alec:

Sure. Well, fortunately, my investments have thrived and continue to thrive in large part because where I tend to focus is in that segment of the economy where America is best, and that is early stage companies that are imagining and inventing the future, that are rewiring markets, and that are oftentimes entering public markets. We've gone from $200 million of assets under management to over a billion in four or five years, particularly because times are so good in that segment.

Frankly, government policies don't really enable or inhibit us too much. If you think about the creation of a lot of America's biggest companies, it's not like Jeff Bezos when he started Amazon was enabled or disabled by the government. When Sam Walton started Walmart, he wasn't enabled or disabled by the government.

If you were to go to Google, if anything, they were enabled by the government because of the Google search engine. The first funding for it was a government IMLS grant for a couple of grad students at Stanford.

So, I do you think that when I think about spending in Washington right now as a human being, as a citizen, as somebody who pays taxes, I want us to bring a more logical approach to what we are investing in, where we are spending in capital. As an investor, I would say it's not really impacting our behavior. It's not something I'm overly concerned with.

Addison:

That kind of begs the question, what are you investing in? You don't have to give me companies, but what areas are you most interested in?

Alec:

So, we invest very, very broadly and, if you go to Amplo.com, you can see a list of those companies. Technology is at the core of most of the companies, but we're also investing in agriculture. We made an investment in a company called Bowery Farming, which is using AI and robotics basically to produce organic crops at levels that previously didn't exist and bring those products in at lower price points into a Whole Foods near you.

We invest in human capital. We invest in education. We've invested in a variety of different areas. For us, if I were to say there's a sort of a common aspect to them, it's digitization linked to artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics.

Addison:

So, what is your method for looking for innovations in those areas?

Alec:

I mean, we've got a pretty talented team that goes deep into certain areas, but God's honest truth is that the thing I'm looking at first is the entrepreneur. A great entrepreneur, a great CEO has this sort of almost beast-like quality to him or her. You can always diligence a piece of science. You can always diligence a piece of technology. That for me is actually the easier part. The more complicated and the more important part is actually understanding the human beings, the teams behind the companies. And so the companies that end up producing the biggest returns for us are those that have a set of, I wouldn't say common characteristics, but shared characteristics and attributes in the founding team and in the executive team.

Addison:

Do you want to talk about what those are?

Alec:

Yeah, so one of them is mania. So a focus on mission. I'll give one example. There was a company that I got involved in called Mark 43, and it was started by a kid from a family of cops. And he, like my son, was a student at Harvard. And when he was a junior at Harvard, he started doing ride arounds with the local police officers and noticed that in their cars, the technology they used was like something out of CHiPs. It was like technology from the 1980s.

And if you arrest somebody, it's like a six hour process. You're taking a police officer off the beat for six hours to do paperwork, right? So he, being a really smart engineering student, a junior at Harvard, thought about how to create technology to make law enforcement more efficient and effective.

Fast forward seven years, it went from an idea of a kid in a police car who's in college undergraduate to we just financed it at 1.5 billion pre-money. Suffice to say we got involved a long time ago. And the slope on the graph goes really up. But what the characteristic there was, somebody young and hungry with a very clear idea about how to take the world as it existed previously, like the police car that looks like the police car from CHIPs, and take it into the future. That's something that I just got.

I'll give another example. I believe that talent is universally distributed, but opportunity is not. So you in New England and me in West Virginia, I don't know about you, but I think that there are kids who went to my high school in West Virginia who had just as much God given talent as everybody else. They just didn't have the opportunity.

So one of the company is we invested in is called Andela, and its thesis was, "Hey, if we go into Africa, go into a place like a place like Lagos, Nigeria, where there are 20 million people and we come up with a methodology to find people who have the greatest level of sort of natural talent for coding, if we give them sort of Google class technology training, we can create great engineers, we can create a marketplace for their talent. And in doing so, we can bring assets to Africa."

Well, that went from sort of a crazy idea to SoftBank just invested, again, 1.5 billion pre-money. But the characteristic of that entrepreneur, clear idea. Talent is universally distributed, opportunity is not. We have a specific way of identifying really highly talented people, developing that talent, and then commercializing it.

Addison:

So most of the readers that are going to be viewing this conversation, and I'm going to write about it as well, most of them are investing their own money. So the best opportunity for them would be early stage investments. And for the most part, they can't get into pre-money Like you're talking about, but what would you recommend for... That's part of the reason I'm asking about the ideas that you have before you invest, but what would you recommend for somebody who just wants to get in on some ground level opportunity if they recognize a trend and they want to move forward.

Alec:

The first thing I would say is invest in funds, invest in venture capital funds. An individual with some capital is most likely not going to be able to source the deals the way I in others are. But if you look, let's come back to Harvard. Harvard just threw up some insane numbers. Their endowment, which is huge already, increased 34% last year. How did it go up when you strip out that 34%? Outsized returns in private equity and venture capital.

So what I would say is public markets investing is something entirely different and we can talk about that. But for people who want to be able to invest as effectively as say Harvard, and for whom public markets, you might look at public markets and have some difficulty because sure, there are things that are great, but there's more liquidity than there are great companies with room for growth. I would say invest in good venture capital funds.

Addison:

Yeah. But that in itself is discouraging for some people.

Alec:

Discouraging because they don't have the capital to invest. How is it discouraging?

Addison:

Well, it's discouraging in a way that they feel like they can't get in. They feel like they're on the wrong side of the trade.

Alec:

Okay.

Addison:

So I don't know if that means anything, but I think it's a real sentiment. Like you yourself were just saying that you went from West Virginia to part of the 1%, which is a good thing to do, right?

Alec:

Yep.

Addison:

But you must see that there are people who are just trying to manage their own money.

Alec:

Well, for people who are just trying to manage their own money, if your source of wealth or if your source of income is what's getting direct deposited in your checking account every two weeks and you've got a couple thousand bucks or tens of thousands of dollars to invest, you shouldn't be investing in venture capital funds. And in fact, if you have less $200,000 to invest, you probably shouldn't be investing in private markets to start off with. You should probably be investing in entirely liquid, entirely public markets, because the lack of liquidity in private markets would create too much exposure for you. You would have a lack of access. You wouldn't be able to hit the investment minimums. So if you're only talking about up to a couple hundred thousand dollars, you should probably be investing in things that are 100% public, 100% liquid.

Addison:

So when you were in that position, how did you approach it?

Alec:

Well, first I was passive. I mean, I'll be honest, when I was an entrepreneur, I was not looking over my shoulder at my own investments. So I invested, and it was mutual fund guys and that's fine. It's fine. But I didn't get surgical. Where I went from passive to active and where I really sort of became the CEO of my own personal capital, investible capital, was actually not that long ago. It was shortly before the pandemic where I saw the professional money managers, with plenty of fees associated with them, underperforming relative to what I thought I could do myself. Then I sort of took control. And if you read my first book, I wrote a book called the industries of the future that was referenced earlier. I set out a number of theses about the world related to digitization, related to the development of fields like genomics, and related to crypto.

So what I did is I began to allocate capital in line with my thoughts, but then into specific equities. So I'm like, "All right, well, if everything's going to be digitized, who is in the best position to sort of digitize music? Spotify. Who's in the best position to digitize video? Netflix. Who's in the best position to digitize consumer goods?" And I was kind of like, "Well, Amazon, but Amazon's already really expensive." I thought Amazon was really expensive. I invested anyway and then it doubled during the pandemic. So what I just said is, "All right, if I believe that there's going to be digitization broadly, what is the sort of best of class in all of those?"

Addison:

Yeah. Have you run into Juan Enriques at all?

Alec:

I'm not sure.

Addison:

Juan, he's similar to you actually. He's a financier of projects and he works with Craig Venter.

Alec:

Okay.

Addison:

They have done a lot of things in genomics, and I only bring that up because you just mentioned genomics.

Alec:

Yeah, I write about Craig Venter in my first book, The Industries Of The Future. He's a fascinating visionary.

Addison:

Yeah. Yeah. He's interesting. Juan is somebody that I know, has worked with him to do... They're doing that one project with Exxon, where they're trying to harvest natural gas, it's actually methane, from these pools of bacteria. It's out in San Diego. It's kind of an interesting project, but it hasn't come to fruition yet. What kind of investment investments have you made or have you made any investments that are aligned with genetic engineering?

Alec:

No, because most of the most interesting stuff there tends to be pre-public. There are some exceptions. If you think about the mRNA vaccines, so an mRNA vaccine, it's a genetic pharmaceutical. So the interesting question to me now is, all right, Moderna had a workable vaccine, 48 hours, 48 hours after the genetic code was emailed to them. The genetic code for COVID-19 was actually emailed to them. And they had a workable vaccine within 48 hours. There's nothing about mRNA that lends itself exclusively to a novel coronavirus. So the interesting question for me right now, and I can't give you the name of a stock or anything like that, but the interesting process is to say, "All right, well, how does this approach, how can this approach be adopted and adapted?"

Addison:

Exactly. That's what I'm asking.

Alec:

Yeah. Yeah. So I don't have stock names for you, but this is the area to sort of research. If you see the underlying technology and the potential of the underlying technology, what are the opportunities with other maladies?

Addison:

So do you think that there's potential there, just based on the data that we've gathered from the pandemic?

Alec:

Yeah. So look, I think the world's last trillion dollar industry was created out of computer code and the world's next trillion dollar industry is going to be created out of genetic code. We've seen the beginnings of it. And what I hope is that with the pandemic, part of what we've seen is an acceleration of the commercialization and approval process. What I hope is that this is the beginning of speeding up things to market. Unfortunately, there's a big segment of America that I guess doesn't believe in science and has created a pretty powerful counter narrative to things like these mRNA vaccines. But I don't think that will substantially inhibit its commercialization.

Addison:

How does it move forward from here? So, there's some technology that went into the mRNA vaccines. What are you envisioning for how that's going to move forward? Because I happen to agree with you, so that's helpful. And so, where does it go from here?

Alec:

I think we're seeing a lot of activity right now inside big pharma, and also at a smaller scale inside some more research oriented institutions focused on entirely different maladies. Now, they don't have the conditions of a pandemic where billions of dollars are suddenly going to flow into their institution. And a commercialization opportunity is available to them in six months. So there isn't that sort of perfect storm, but what there is, is an opportunity recognizing where pharma is going and the multi billion dollar R and D companies that exist inside a lot of these companies, to figure out how the technology can be adapted for other maladies.

Addison:

Are you at all skeptical of that perfect storm? It sounds like you don't even worry about the politics behind it.

Alec:

When you... I don't understand the question. The perfect storm was, we had a global pandemic, which meant that we had to send billions of dollars to pharmaceutical companies who represented that they had the underlying capabilities to develop vaccines. They proved mostly right. I mean, I think AstraZeneca underperformed, but even AstraZeneca did produce something that created some efficacy. So, no, I actually think it's pretty validating. I think the fact that vaccines are not miracles of science. I think they are validations of science. And I think the companies who develop them deserve enormous credit.

Addison:

Are you ever suspicious of that?

Alec:

Not at all.

Addison:

Yeah.

Alec:

Not even a little. No. I mean, look, there's a lot... Nothing has been more studied, more intensively, scientifically over a shorter period of time than these mRNA vaccines. So no, I have no level of skepticism at all. And in fact, if you look at vaccines broadly, outside of the mythology, in terms of actual evidence of vaccines doing harm, there's little to no evidence of any vaccine anywhere actually doing harm. So no, I'm not skeptical.

Addison:

How about just the process of getting through the FDA and all that, the stuff that we hear about on the regular media on a regular basis?

Alec:

Well, I would've liked for the FDA to move faster, if anything. But I think that it appears that the system worked. The FDA, which normally would've taken a couple years, recognizing that hundreds of thousands of people were dying, worked on in an expedited fashion. If you look, for example, at the Pfizer clinical trial, they had over 30,000 people in their clinical trials. I think it was... the system worked. We can sort of declare victory, in a manner of speaking, in terms of how government and business could work together in this respect.

Addison:

Yeah. All right. So, I want to go back to the original question. So, here's your book.

Alec:

Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Addison:

And I want to read the sentence again, because it struck me as important. You... Have to flip through to get to it. But you basically said that you're... Well, I'm just going to paraphrase. You are keying off the raging 20s of the 1920s, because that was a period of enormous prosperity. But you're using the phrase, raging, because of the political divide. That's what I took away from it.

Alec:

So the roaring 20s of the 1920s were prosperous until the end. And let's remember how the roaring 20s ended.

Addison:

Exactly.

Alec:

It ended with financial collapse and with Germany tilting toward Nazis, Italy tilting towards fascism, and the United States tilting in a different direction toward the New Deal to restore the health of the economy. So, that was the roaring 20s, and it was a period of remarkable artistic and cultural production. The raging 20s, I would argue, has started very badly, in much the way that the roaring 20s began after World War I, after the Spanish Flu. This decade is beginning through the destruction of the pandemic. And as Picasso said, "Every act of creation began ends with an act of destruction."

But we're in a position right now, where I think that we are going to make decisions, whether this decade concludes with us tilting more with the world looking either more like Star Trek or more like Mad Max. And whether the future looks more like Star Trek or more like Mad Max at the end of this decade, comes down to the question of, will we rewrite our social contract?

I mean, just a little math for you. I think I'm young. I'm only 49 years old. But if you go back to when I was three years old and nine years old, rather, third grade... If the level of inequality had stayed constant over 40 years, over 40 years from when I was in third grade to today, it would mean that 50 trillion dollar, 50 with a T, would have gone to workers earning below 90%. That's $1,100 per worker, per month.

So why are people in West Virginia raging? Well, they're raging in part because they've become completely emasculated and they've suffered for decades, economically. And that $1,000... And if it were 40 years ago, they would be earning, on average, $1,100 per worker, per month more. That's remarkable. Thinking about the 1%, over the last 30 years. And again, I'm part of the 1%. But over the last 30 years, here's the math. This is just data. In the last 30 years, the top 1% has grown $21 trillion wealthier while the lower 50 half has grown $900 billion dollars poorer. And the middle class, 50 to 90%, has stagnated. That's fairly remarkable math. And if that trajectory continues, then what I think we're going to see is, we're going to see more radicalization, we're going to see more and more rage, and we're going to see the social contract tear.

Addison:

But how do you write a social contract?

Alec:

In part, with things like tax legislation. They're very... That sounds really... This stuff sounds high minded, but it then becomes very practical. I mean, the fact that we have a tax system where, about every other year, a single FedEx driver, like one FedEx driver pays more in federal taxes than Federal Express Corporation, that's pretty screwed up. Where the 17 year old barista who makes your cappuccino for you at Starbucks, pays more in federal taxes than Starbucks. That's pretty screwed up. And it's because as capital has globalized, we've created a global capital system where you might think you're at a Starbucks, but you're really in the Grand Caymans from a tax perspective.

I write about this a fair bit in the Raging 2020s. Paying taxes is not something that the world's richest corporations and individuals do. So if you want to talk about how we can rewrite our social contract, I think that billionaires, and I think that the world's wealthiest corporations should pay taxes. I think FedEx should pay more in federal taxes than the FedEx driver. I think Starbucks should pay more in taxes than the 17 year old barista. So, here is a very practical example.

Addison:

But, how does that happen?

Alec:

Through things like, for example, give the Biden administration credit. If you were to say, "What is the number one thing that the Biden administration has done well?" I'd say, "It's the introduction of a global minimum tax.", which now has 136 countries behind it. A global minimum tax will be able to, I believe, reduce the taxes of 90% of Americans. Because what we will have done is we will have closed the tax games that allow the world's richest people and corporations to not pay taxes.

Addison:

But isn't there an argument that, if they don't have to pay taxes, for example... I know what you're arguing for. What do you say when they say, "Hey, if we can keep our money, we can invest in new industries. We can create new things." And don't Google, Facebook, Amazon, don't they play Apple? I know that's an actual fact that I know, that they move all their operations to Ireland during the tax holiday over there. Doesn't that create new jobs?

Alec:

No. I mean, look, I think that the idea that we should say, "Our richest people in our richest companies shouldn't pay taxes because it creates jobs.", if I could... I think it's a pretty dangerous idea. And also, if you actually look at... Let's look at the math. I'm a big believer in math. Let's talk about the airlines, for example. Okay? America's five biggest airlines produced 49 billion dollars in free cash flow in the decade preceding the pandemic, 49 billion dollars. Did they invest in new planes? Did they invest in higher wages for their employers? Did they invest in new roots?

No. 47 billion of that 49 billion dollars went to stock buybacks. And so what... So 47 billion dollars disappears into stock buybacks. So what then happens when the pandemic hits? What happens when the pandemic hits and they need cash, guess who comes to save them? The government. This isn't capitalism, it's corporate socialism, where you privatize the gains to shareholders and you socialize the gains to taxpayers.

Think about Boeing. Boeing, over that same 10 year period, had 58 billion dollars in free cash flow. It spent 43 billion of that 58 billion on share buybacks. This, despite the fact that so many of its planes were crashing. So it didn't put that 43 billion dollars into building safer planes, to doing research and development so that maybe they wouldn't crash. No, they fluffed up the stock price. And so, these things, no, I think it doesn't work in reality. And I also don't believe that companies like Google and others that incorporate in Ireland during tax holidays and others, should get benefits that most of us, who live and work in the United States and work and play by the rules here, don't.

Addison:

All right. Sounds good.

Alec:

All right.

Addison:

Hopefully we'll talk to you soon. I mean, you're down the street.

Alec:

Likewise. Likewise. Well, look, I appreciate the time. Thank you for drawing some attention to this book, The Raging 2020s. And I'll be closer to you in a short while, when I'm at Poly High School for my son's soccer game.

Addison:

All right.

Alec:

Take care.

Addison:

See you.

Be sure to grab your very own copy of Alec’s new book, The Raging 2020s: Companies, Countries, People - and the Fight for Our Future.

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